“We continue to believe the bottom is in. The 1 year+ holder rate during the potential December bottom is within 1% of the 1 year+ holder rate during the previous cycle’s bottom in January of 2015.”
According to their December 2018 report, Delphi Digital predicted that Bitcoin will bottom by the end of Q1 2019. Adding more credibility to that forecast was their analysis of the UTXO age trends for Bitcoin and its comparison to previous cycles. The report added,
“Assuming the current cycle’s price did in fact bottom in December, the 1 Year + holder rate was 53.9% at the time, which falls right in line with the 1 year+ holder rate of 53.5% during the price bottom of the previous cycle in January 2015.”
Source: Delphi Digital
The report also mentioned how the UTXO volume has risen over recent months and as of April 2019, 63.1% of Bitcoin hadn’t been moved. By the end of November, the 1 year+ hodler rate was 52%, 57% by the end of January, and 60.3% a week into March. There’s a clear slowdown in this trend, with the 1-year hodler rate growing by less than 1% in six weeks.
The report added that slowdown of the UTXO balances was clear and that it,
“… likely marks the end of the high growth period in the 1 year+ UTXO rate, which makes sense considering the pricing environment and the waning level of new interest we were seeing at this point last year. We also show how this scenario played out during the previous two cycles.”
The report added that as the bottom became more apparent, users who hodl Bitcoin also increase and that they could “comfortable hold their Bitcoin for longer time horizon.” This was due to the users’ notion of Bitcoin exhibiting a generally upward trajectory in the near future.